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Global warming became a highly argumentative subject, with social, political, ecological, economic, and scientific implications. In the same time, some people criticize the global warming theory as a cruel deception. The aim of this paper is to analyze the issues exploring the pros and cons of both sides, and to inspect the main reasons for the controversy. The objective is to give enough understanding of the problem to the reader in order for him/her to know and value arguments, evidence and conclusions correctly, and so to make judgments about issues related to climate change and global warming. The obvious politicization of science should become plain to the reader. The discussion is not only about changes in the climate of Earth, since it is the known fact from paleoclimatology and historical records that the climate has always been changing. Reasonably, this controversy is about the human activity effect on the planet’s climate enough to cause potentially deleterious, serious and widespread changes to flora, fauna and geography. This issue is known as “anthropogenic global warming” (AGW).

The affair about global warming appeared because of relatively rapid rate of warming that was suggested by measuring the temperature over the recent decades. The research of the problem has two directions: past climate trends, mainly temperature, and possible future changes of the climate. The past temperature tendencies were restored from proxy data until the 19th century, when reliable temperature measurements started to be recorded. For the future, computer-based simulation models help to project degrees and types of climate change, built on recent assumptions and trends. If the most pessimistic predictions are true, the global warming will lead to extinctions, coastal flooding, and probably famine. The envisioned actions usually involve the reduction of carbon-based fuels, because of excess of carbon dioxide emissions resulted the process of these fuels burning. Evidently, any steps to achieve this aim involve efforts, expenses and forced measures on a huge scale, as well as disturbances in social organization, individual ways of living, business practices, and other areas.  The global warming means the recent rise of global temperatures. The reason for that phenomenon is human activity and especially the production of big amounts of carbon dioxide released in the air. The fact and explanation are always detached so one may accept the first, but discard the second. It is often ignored in today’s politically charged environment. The fact of the temperature rising and its explanation are often intentionally put together because of a seeming need for political action; in this case, one can use the exactness of the first to defend the second.

There is exact information that “climate deniers” cannot reject. Both satellite and ground-based measurements indicated the rise of global temperatures since 1980. Carbone dioxide levels in the atmosphere were increased from 290 parts per million (ppm) to 390 ppm in 2012. Human activity is the main source of carbon monoxide and other greenhouse gases, which cause heating of the atmosphere. There are the following questions that must be answered: Was there a temperature rise in the recent period of time? Does the warming represent an anomaly? How is good information on which predictions are based? What are the most likely projections of the changes in the future? What percent of the recent warming may be considered and the one caused by human activity? What can be done to restrain that activity?

Climate is an extremely complex physical system. Its behavior is determined by the interaction between the biosphere and the atmosphere, the oceans and continents surfaces, glaciers, as well as the interaction with cosmic objects, such as the Sun. Finally, human activities also affect the climate. Natural fluctuations, which arise during this interaction, may have an extension from several weeks to hundreds years. It is not clearly known what exactly the main cause is. This theme is a stumbling block of many scientists around the world. Today, the main hypotheses that determine the causes of climate change are the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities and the impact of natural sources: solar activity, volcanic activity, explosions and the unknown interaction of the earth with the sun and planets of the solar system.

It was revealed that the temperature tends to change abruptly. However, with the overall growth of temperature during the years, there were recorded that the temperature dropped significantly, and after that a rapid growth was observed. It was analyzed that in those years, the temperature increase was due to the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere; this fact, in turn, was caused by the presence of carbon dioxide in the air. Many researchers considered the presence of CO2 in the atmosphere a dominant cause of rising temperatures. Water vapor, ozone, methane, Freon and other gases also provided the greenhouse effect. Despite many factors that affect earth, the main cause of global warming is human activity. During the climate research, scientists have observed that the temperature growth curve on the planet accurately coincides with the curve of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase. The unambiguous reason for the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was industry and agriculture around the world, which constantly increase emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The rapid climate changes that occur in recent decades can be explained with the increasing intensification of human activities that have a significant impact on the chemical composition of the earth atmosphere in the direction of increasing its content of greenhouse gases. The increase of the average temperature at 0.8 °C over the last 100 years is a high rate for natural processes. Recent decades have added more weight to this argument, because during this period the temperature raised for 0.3-0.4°C.

Oceans are a huge battery of solar energy. It largely determines the speed and direction of movement of warm ocean and air masses on the planet, which in turn influence strongly on the earth's climate. In addition, the ocean water consists a huge amount of carbon dioxide (about $140 trillion tons, which is 60 times more than the atmosphere) as well as a number of other greenhouse gases. As a result of certain natural processes (such as global warming or ocean volcanism), these gases may be released into the atmosphere, significantly affecting the earth’s climate. These processes can be easily explained: the warming increases evaporation of water (which is also a greenhouse gas) from the surface of the ocean. Due to volcanic eruptions in the ocean, huge amounts of both CO2 and methane are released into the atmosphere. Methane retains heat 20 times more than carbon dioxide, but its impact on global warming is not straightforward; methane contacts with the atmosphere, and the chemical reaction produces carbon dioxide and water vapor, which are the main gases involved in the greenhouse effect. The most powerful methane source was found at the bottom of the oceans just a few years ago. It consists of a global system of ranges, with the length of 60 thousand kilometers. Methane is emitted during the reaction of mantle material with sea water coming through fissures in the ranges. There are also lake, wetland systems, tundra landscapes and tropical mangrove landscapes that are important sources of methane.

The climate of earth is so unique and livable because of the Earth location in the solar system. Therefore, even small changes in the activity of the Sun or the angle of inclination of the Earth may have a very significant impact on the planet's climate system. There are 11, 22 and 80-90 year cycles of solar activity, and it is likely that the observed global warming is due to another increase of solar activity that may subside in the near future. Taking into consideration changing the angle of inclination of the earth orbit, the motion of the planet causes a change of the Earth radiation balance, and hence its climate.

The volcanic activity is a source of sulfuric acid aerosols and large amounts of carbon dioxide emitted during eruptions. This fact also affects the planet’s climate. Large eruptions can be accompanied by an increase in global temperature due to the huge emissions of aerosols. Volcanic dust can stay in the atmosphere for a very long time, reducing its transparency. The heat generated by sources on earth will not be able to penetrate into space without hindrance so it will be reflected from the opaque atmosphere, thereby forming a greenhouse on the surface of the Earth. However, if the volcanic dust would be too long in the atmosphere, after warming there would be a significant cooling due to the fact that the Sun rays would not be able to reach the surface of the planet.

However, this is only a hypothesis, and some people do not agree with it. Most of the carbon dioxide is contained in the oceans so with the temperature increase, the solubility of gases decreases, and the huge amounts of carbon dioxide and methane are released into the atmosphere. The cause of warming, in the opinion of many scientists, is the result of solar activity. However, even if to agree with the greenhouse theory, human fault is greatly exaggerated since the analysis of the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not include the oceans, volcanoes during eruptions and forest fires. Compared to those emissions, the human part is almost negligible.

In the past few years, there were published many predictions about the devastating effects of global warming. The main of them are the increase of the number and duration of droughts, forest fires, flooding, hurricanes, epidemics, etc.  According to the current projections, the average global temperature of the planet will increase by 1-1.5°C by 2025, and by the end of the 21st century, it will increase by another 3.5-4°C, provided that carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow as well. What can it lead to? After all, the temperature will not rise everywhere. Most minor changes will occur near the equator in tropical latitudes. In these areas, only the distribution and amount of precipitation may change significantly. This fact may in turn lead to a gradual hydration of deserts adjacent to these areas, and savannas change on tropical rainforests. Serious changes are possible in the temperate zone of the northern hemisphere, especially in large parts of Russia. Winters will become softer and little frosty with lots of snow. Sudden temperature changes will be caused by the free flow of cold air from the Arctic Ocean. Still, the number of frost days will decrease. Spring floods will become more abundant, the summer will be hotter and longer. Autumn period will also be longer and softer. However, the increase of warm days will entail an increase in precipitation by 10-20%. The particular concern is the permafrost soils. The warming rate of melting increases sharply and the area of permafrost soils will be reduced. Many towns and cities, as well as pipelines and highways are built to reflect this permafrost. The thawing along with large areas of waterlogging will lead to destruction of industrial and residential buildings and communications. Severe climatic changes can be expected in Africa, South Asia, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central and South America. In all these regions, the temperature will not almost change, but there will drop significantly less rainfall since the difference between the equatorial and Polar Regions will be less noticeable. Consequently, this will lead to a weakening of cyclones and accordingly reducing moisture and its redistribution of land. Tropics and subtropics will be increasingly exposed to droughts and forest fires, and the deserts will spread quickly. There will be no significant changes in climate of Western Europe, USA, China and Japan as well as in parts of South-East Asian, but there will be the increase of extreme drought and heat. In connection with the ongoing warming, the different epidemics will spread faster. The particular concern is the fact that the melting of glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland, ice cover of the Arctic Ocean and its islands will lead to a possible rise of water level of the oceans. According to one of the predictions, after the start of intensive melting of glaciers, water level will rise by 6-8 meters. The increase of water level even for two feet can lead to the fact that many coastal areas of Canada, the U.S. and Europe will disappear under water. The same situation may arise on the lowlands of northern Siberia and the Arctic islands. At the same time, the Arctic Ocean will be released from the multi-year ice, which will only occur in the winter. Warming may also affect the Gulf Stream, which warms the coast of Scandinavia. The flow can be slowed down as a result of warming. This is due to the fact that it exists as a result of the temperature difference between the high and low latitudes, and due to warming the temperature difference can be significantly lower, which in turn will slow down the stream. In any case, even though quite optimistic forecast, the changes do not promise anything good to mankind.

A broad consensus among climate scientists regarding the continued growth in global temperatures has led to the fact that a number of states, corporations and individuals are trying to prevent global warming or to adapt to it. Many environmental groups have advocated for the adoption of measures against climate change, mainly consumers, but also at the municipal, regional and governmental levels. Some are also in favor of limiting the global production of fossil fuels, citing a direct link between fuel combustion and emissions of carbon dioxide. Today, the main international agreement on combating global warming is the Kyoto Protocol (agreed in 1997, entered into force in 2005), the addition of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The protocol includes more than 160 countries and covers about 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The first phase of the protocol ended at the end of 2012, international negotiations on a new agreement began in 2007 on the island of Bali (Indonesia) and continued at the UN conference in Copenhagen in December 2009. In 1980, more than 100 million tons of carbon dioxide were emitted into the atmosphere in the eastern part of North America, Europe, the western part of the Soviet Union and the major cities of Japan. The carbon dioxide emissions of developed countries in 1985 accounted for 74% of the total while the share of developing countries was 24%. Scientists suggest that by 2025, the share of developing countries in the production of carbon dioxide will increase to 44%. In December 1997, at a meeting in Kyoto (Japan), dedicated to global climate change, delegates from more than one hundred and sixty countries have adopted the Convention obliged developed countries to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. The Kyoto Protocol committed thirty eight industrialized countries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 2008-2012 to 5% of the level in 1990: The European Union had to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions by 8%; USA - by 7%, and Japan – by 6%. The Protocol provided a system of quotas for greenhouse gas emissions. Its essence lied in the fact that each of the countries (as long as it applies only to the thirty-eight countries that have pledged to reduce emissions), was authorized to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gases. It was assumed that any country or company would exceed the quota of emissions. In such cases, those countries or companies could purchase the rights to additional emissions in those countries or companies whose emissions were less than the allocated quota. Thus, it was assumed that the main goal was to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in the next 15 years at 5% would be performed.

There is a conflict within and across countries. Developing countries such as India and China, which make a significant contribution to air pollution were present at the meeting in Kyoto, but did not sign the agreement. Developing countries generally cautious perceive environmental initiatives of industrialized nations. The arguments are simple: the main pollution is caused by developed countries; tightening controls is profitable for industrialized countries as this will inhibit economic development in developing countries; the contamination of hothouse gases was accumulated in the developed countries during their development process.

The fight against the increase of carbon dioxide emissions is needed, and it is a very important question. The ecological conditions on the planet are becoming worse annually. It affects not only people, but also animals and plants. The reducing of greenhouse gas emissions that can be achieved by increasing the energy efficiency, reducing heat loss and fuel, modernization of the energy complex in any case have a positive impact on the ecological environment of the planet. Also, it is important to search and develop alternative sources of energy because the natural resources such as gas, oil and coal are not eternal. According to conservative estimates, the amount of these resources is enough only for 30-50 years.

In conclusion, it must be said that ecological situation on planet Earth is not good, and that was mainly caused by humans. In any case, the mankind should reduce the level of pollution to save the planet for the future generations. The global warming is the warning for people; it is the sign that cannot be ignored. Many kinds of animals and plants have disappeared; people have problems with health because of the bad ecological conditions. This is in our hands to save the planet.

References

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Global warming. (n.d.). Natural Resources Defense Council. Retrieved from http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/

Schuur, E. A. G., Bockheim, J., & Cabadell, J. G. (2008). Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: Implications for the global carbon cycle. BioScience, 58(8), Retrieved from http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/global/pdf/pep/Schuur2008_Permafrost_Bioscience2.pdf