Valspar Championship PGA DFS picks sleepers fades

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Golf tournaments often feature one golfer with significantly heavier odds to win than the rest of the field. This weeks Valspar Championship is an extreme example, with Dustin Johnson being given 16.7 percentodds, nearly double Jon Rahm, who is second at 9.1 percent. When playing PGA DFS, it can be difficult to a se s the value of picking a player in Johnsons positiondue to the competing factors of his resulting projection and ownership percentage.Fading a player entirely with Johnsons heavy odds is too risky in daily fantasy golf considering the importance of selecting the tournament winner. On the flip side, even the most Chase Daniel Jersey aggre sive exposure to Johnson wont earn you much leverage on the field at the extremely high ownership level he is likely to receive on FanDuel and DraftKings.In this type of scenario, my strategy is to match exposure to Johnson with his projected ownership. In other words, if I dont see value in either rostering or fading a player, I will sit on the fence as much as po sible. If Johnson is projected for 50-percentownership, that will be my target exposure. If you arent a ma s multi-entry player, playing one lineup with Johnson and one lineup without him is a way for you to execute on this approach.MOREROTOQL:Lineup Builder|*If you are interested in taking your DFS golf lineup building strategy to the next level, you should consider using a lineup optimizer, and . Valspar Championship picksand PGA DFS strategyContrarian Options The perception of this weeks course is that accuracy should be emphasizedand that longer hitters will not have their typical Jonathan Bullard Jersey advantage. In cases like this in which there appears to be a clear course fit, the DFS community tends to weigh the course angle far too heavily in the absence of other dominant statistical differentiators. This can lead to certain golfers going overlooked.Gary Woodland and Bubba Watson are well-known bombers. These are two of the longest drivers in golf, and that is Bobby Massie Jersey often an emphasis of their game. However, Woodland and Watson are also strong all-around golfers. Both are proven winners and are in solid form. Despite this, I anticipate that a negative perception of course fit will combine with subpar course history to keep both golfers ownership low.Woodland has mi sed the cut in three of six tries at this course, and Watson mi sed the cut in his only try. Nonethele s, its important to remember that course history isnt everything. Paul Caseys only course history coming into this tournament last year was a mi sed cut, but he ended up winning the whole thing. Course fit and course history should influence your player selection but are often weighted too heavily by the field. There is no rule that says a bomber cant win on a fine se course. Leveragea sumptions and fire up Woodland and Watson at low ownership.Fades The players I am most eager to fade Mike Singletary Jersey this week are Jim Furyk and Steve Stricker. Following the same logic as explained in my contrarian approach for this tournament, Furyk and Stricker are primarily getting attention due to course fit and course history. Furyks ownership in particular will only spike further due to a second place finish last week. In my opinion, there are higher quality long-term and all-around golfers in each of their respective price ranges.Its difficult to know on any given week how a specific course will play. A simple factor such as weather can completely flip a courses expected identity and cause it to play differently than in the past. Furyk and Stricker are golfers that would not be heavily considered by the field if it werent for specific expectations of how the course will play.The ownership I anticipate for Furyk and Stricker this week is too high considering their prices and long-term results.Dont bite too aggre sively on the course angle there are plenty of other statistics equally worthy of consideration. Taking a step back and looking at the bigger statistical picture can help you identify players that the field will overinvest in while paving the path to a diamond in the rough.Aaron White graduated from Akiem Hicks Jersey Northwestern University with a B.A. in Economics. He has played DFS profe sionally for several years and has won featured NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and golf GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

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